The greatest crisis facing Iran today
From severe drought and shrinking water supplies to hazardous air pollution, Iran confronts an ecological emergency that threatens its natural systems, economy, and social fabric. As these hardships mount, could public dissatisfaction with the regime be on the horizon?
Prof. Adi Wolfson
The dramatic weather swings of recent weeks—unseasonal heatwaves followed by floods—make clear that the climate crisis is no longer a distant threat but a present reality.
Around the world, shifting climate patterns are reshaping lives, and Iran stands out as a stark example: worsening drought, widespread power and water outages, and dangerous air pollution have drawn international attention.
A man cools off with water on a hot day in Tehran, Iran, amid an ongoing heatwave affecting much of the country (Photo: AFP)
Iran’s deepening ecological crisis results from a combination of natural climate shifts and long-standing failures in infrastructure and resource management. The country’s average temperature is rising at nearly twice the global rate, with about a 2°C increase since the 1950s.
This warming has dramatically altered rainfall patterns: over the last two decades, precipitation has fallen by roughly 20%. In the last two years, the decline reached 40%, and since the start of the 2025 rainy season in late September, rainfall has plunged by an astonishing 90%. Meanwhile, soaring temperatures accelerate evaporation from both natural and human-made reservoirs, as well as from soil and vegetation. Compounding these shifts are years of reckless — and in some cases criminally negligent — water management by Iranian authorities.
A woman walks past dead almond trees in a drought-stricken area of Iran, where prolonged water shortages have devastated agriculture (Photo: Solmaz Daryani/Shutterstock)
Iran’s population has grown by about 30% over the past two decades, alongside rapid urbanization and industrial expansion, all driving up water demand. The agricultural sector, heavily subsidized by the government, has promoted inefficient water use. As a result, groundwater aquifers have been overdrawn, surface water reservoirs have dried up, water quality has deteriorated, and ecosystems have collapsed.
The depletion of Iran’s major water reserves has reached critical levels, with key reservoirs that supply homes, factories, and farms running dry. Water cuts have become routine, disrupting daily life, lowering agricultural output, and fueling food imports and rising prices. For Iran’s already fragile economy, the impact has been devastating.
The water crisis has also triggered an energy crisis. Hydroelectric output has plummeted due to diminished dam levels, and cooling systems at fossil-fuel power plants have been affected. Widespread electricity blackouts have become common and lengthy, hindering daily life and disrupting industries, including oil production and refining. The strain on public health has grown, with increasing illness and deaths linked to the crisis.
A man jumps across a nearly dry riverbed in the Kan River in Tehran, Iran, as the country faces a severe water crisis (Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS)
Groundwater depletion has caused saltwater intrusion from deeper layers, further salinizing soils and harming plant and animal life. The retreat of aquifers has altered soil structures, leading to significant land subsidence—measured at as much as 25 centimeters annually in western Tehran.
These changes have intensified air pollution. Dry, brittle soil in arid regions converts to dust and salt, easily carried by winds. In recent weeks, these particles have driven extreme air pollution across Iran. In Tehran—already plagued by smog from heavy traffic and petrochemical industries—air quality indices have reached some of the highest, most hazardous levels in the world.
The ruling authorities have blamed climate change and international sanctions for the catastrophic state of the country’s water and energy systems. Officials have even warned that unless divine intervention arrives soon, mass evacuations—including from Tehran—could become necessary.
Yet forecasts suggest Iran’s ecological emergency will worsen, threatening its economy, food security, and very way of life. The growing risk of climate-driven displacement raises the question: could this crisis eventually spark a popular uprising? Time will tell.
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Prof. Adi Wolfson is head of the Master’s Program in Green Engineering at Sami Shamoon College of Engineering.
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